Multihazard forecasting and impact modelling

Dougal Townsend, GNS Science

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Multihazard forecasting and impact modelling

State Active
Duration 2019 – 2024
Budget / Funding $942,000
Project Leader(s)
Massey University

Vision

For decision-makers and planners to use reliable risk and hazard models when deciding how to mitigate the multiple hazards that can arise from a single event such as an earthquake or storm.

Project description

The ability to plan for and mitigate the impacts of multiple and potentially cascading hazards resulting from a single event has been hampered by a lack of modelling of the interactions and dependencies in hazards, impacts and vulnerabilities.

We are developing statistical and computational modelling methods to account for multiple and cascading hazards and the linked impacts to infrastructure. Our goal is for the insights provided by these models to be used by planners and decision-makers when mitigating the impacts of multiple hazards.

To do this, we are working on two closely linked sub-projects:

  •  Multi-hazard forecasting: quantifying the likelihood of any hazard occurring and then estimating the likelihood of hazards occurring at the same time or close together.
  • Multi-impact operability: seeking to understand how the impact of one hazard on infrastructure can make it more vulnerable to subsequent hazards. Our approach is to conduct experiments on same-hazard impacts and then extend the work using statistical modelling to different types of hazard.

Resource Outputs from this project

Output Type
Article

Geomorphic precursors of large landslides: seismic preconditioning and slope-top benches

Tim Davies, Danilo Moretti, Geomorphic precursors of large landslides: seismic preconditioning and slope-top benches. In Hazards and Disasters Series, Landslide Hazards, Risks, and Disasters (Second…

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Article

Reducing landslide disaster impacts

Tim Davies, Reducing landslide disaster impacts. In Hazards and Disasters Series, Landslide Hazards, Risks, and Disasters (Second Edition). Editor(s): Tim Davies, Nick Rosser, J.F. Shroder,…

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Article

Are We Missing the Target? A Bias-Variance Perspective on Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment

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Article

Developing Improvements to Multi- Hazard Risk Assessments.

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Article

Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Alec J. Wild, Mark S. Bebbington, Jan M. Lindsay, Danielle H. Charlton, Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field,…

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Article

Are we missing the target? a bias-variance perspective on multi-hazard risk assessment

Dunant, Alexandre. Are We Missing the Target? A Bias-Variance Perspective on Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment. Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9, 2021. DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.685301

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Article

Multihazards scenario generator: A network-based simulation of natural disasters

Dunant, A., Bebbington, M., Davies, T. and Horton, P. (2021), Multihazards Scenario Generator: A Network-Based Simulation of Natural Disasters. Risk Analysis, 41: 2154-2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13723

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Article

Bayesian lifetime analysis for landslide dams

Frigerio Porta G, Bebbington M, Xiao X, Jones G. 2020. Bayesian lifetime analysis for landslide dams. Landslides. 17(8):1835-1848. doi:10.1007/s10346-020-01388-5.

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Article

A Statistical Model for Earthquake And/Or Rainfall Triggered Landslides

Frigerio Porta G, Bebbington M, Xiao X, Jones G. 2020. A statistical model for earthquake and/or rainfall triggered landslides. Earth and Space Science Open Archive…

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Article

Probabilistic cascading multi-hazard risk methodology using graph theory, a New Zealand trial.

Dunant A, Bebbington M, Davies T. 2021. Probabilistic cascading multi-hazard risk assessment methodology using graph theory, a New Zealand trial. International Journal of Disaster Risk…

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Article

Can artesian groundwater and earthquake-induced aquifer leakage exacerbate the manifestation of liquefaction?

Cox SC, van Ballegooy S, Rutter HK, Harte DS, Holden C, Gulley AK, Lacrosse V, Manga M. 2021. Can artesian groundwater and earthquake-induced aquifer leakage…

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Article

From physical disruption to community impact. Modelling a Wellington Fault earthquake.

Brown C, McDonald G, Uma SR, Smith N, Sadashiva V, Buxton R, Grace E, Seville E, Daly M. 2019. From physical disruption to community impact…

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