Multihazard forecasting and impact modelling
State
Active
Duration
2019 – 2024
Budget / Funding
$942000
Project Leader(s)
Massey University
Vision
For decision-makers and planners to use reliable risk and hazard models when deciding how to mitigate the multiple hazards that can arise from a single event such as an earthquake or storm.
Project description
The ability to plan for and mitigate the impacts of multiple and potentially cascading hazards resulting from a single event has been hampered by a lack of modelling of the interactions and dependencies in hazards, impacts and vulnerabilities.
We are developing statistical and computational modelling methods to account for multiple and cascading hazards and the linked impacts to infrastructure. Our goal is for the insights provided by these models to be used by planners and decision-makers when mitigating the impacts of multiple hazards.
To do this, we are working on two closely linked sub-projects:
- Multi-hazard forecasting: quantifying the likelihood of any hazard occurring and then estimating the likelihood of hazards occurring at the same time or close together.
- Multi-impact operability: seeking to understand how the impact of one hazard on infrastructure can make it more vulnerable to subsequent hazards. Our approach is to conduct experiments on same-hazard impacts and then extend the work using statistical modelling to different types of hazard.
Resource Outputs from this project
Article
Impact of Droughts on Farms’ Financing Choices: Empirical Evidence from New Zealand
How drought severity impacts dairy and sheep/beef farm debt, equity and profitability.
Article
Cost-benefit analysis for evacuation decision-support: challenges and possible solutions for applications in areas of distributed volcanism.
Creating an evacuation decision-support tool to identify locations that are cost-beneficial to evacuate in the event of volcanic unrest.
Article
Residential Building Flood Damage: Insights on Processes and Implications for Risk Assessments
Paulik, R., Wild, R., Zorn, C. & Wotherspoon, L. (2022). Residential Building Flood Damage: Insights on Processes and Implications for Risk Assessments. Journal of Flood…
Article
RiskScape: a flexible multi-hazard risk modelling engine
Paulik, R., Horspool, N., Woods, R., Griffiths, N., Beale, T., Magill, C., Wild, A., Popovich, B., Walbran, G. & Garlick, R. (2022). RiskScape: a flexible…
Article
Geomorphic precursors of large landslides: seismic preconditioning and slope-top benches
Tim Davies, Danilo Moretti, Geomorphic precursors of large landslides: seismic preconditioning and slope-top benches. In Hazards and Disasters Series, Landslide Hazards, Risks, and Disasters (Second…
Article
Reducing landslide disaster impacts
Tim Davies, Reducing landslide disaster impacts. In Hazards and Disasters Series, Landslide Hazards, Risks, and Disasters (Second Edition). Editor(s): Tim Davies, Nick Rosser, J.F. Shroder,…
Article
Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand
Alec J. Wild, Mark S. Bebbington, Jan M. Lindsay, Danielle H. Charlton, Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field,…
Article
Are we missing the target? a bias-variance perspective on multi-hazard risk assessment
Dunant, Alexandre. Are We Missing the Target? A Bias-Variance Perspective on Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment. Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9, 2021. DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.685301
Article
Multihazards scenario generator: A network-based simulation of natural disasters
Generating multihazard scenarios with realistic impacts.
Article
From eruption scenarios to probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis: An example of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand
Ang PS, Bebbington MS, Lindsay JM, Jenkins SF. 2020. From eruption scenarios to probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis: an example of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New…
Article
Bayesian lifetime analysis for landslide dams
Frigerio Porta G, Bebbington M, Xiao X, Jones G. 2020. Bayesian lifetime analysis for landslide dams. Landslides. 17(8):1835-1848. doi:10.1007/s10346-020-01388-5.
Article
A Statistical Model for Earthquake And/Or Rainfall Triggered Landslides
Frigerio Porta G, Bebbington M, Xiao X, Jones G. 2020. A statistical model for earthquake and/or rainfall triggered landslides. Earth and Space Science Open Archive…
Article
Probabilistic cascading multi-hazard risk methodology using graph theory, a New Zealand trial.
Dunant A, Bebbington M, Davies T. 2021. Probabilistic cascading multi-hazard risk assessment methodology using graph theory, a New Zealand trial. International Journal of Disaster Risk…
Article
Can artesian groundwater and earthquake-induced aquifer leakage exacerbate the manifestation of liquefaction?
Cox SC, van Ballegooy S, Rutter HK, Harte DS, Holden C, Gulley AK, Lacrosse V, Manga M. 2021. Can artesian groundwater and earthquake-induced aquifer leakage…
Article
From physical disruption to community impact. Modelling a Wellington Fault earthquake.
Brown C, McDonald G, Uma SR, Smith N, Sadashiva V, Buxton R, Grace E, Seville E, Daly M. 2019. From physical disruption to community impact…
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