Dynamic Assessment of Impacts

Graham Hancox, GNS Science

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Dynamic Assessment of Impacts

State Active
Duration 2019 – 2024
Budget / Funding $1,085,000
Project Leader(s)
MEResearch

Vision

For resilience planners in Aotearoa New Zealand to have quantified and accurate assessments of the financial, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards.

Project description

The MERIT (Measuring the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure) decision support tool was developed to help resilience planners estimate the economic consequences of disruptive events. We are improving MERIT to capture more impacts of natural hazard events and provide insights into the changing nature of these impacts. Our research is organised into three sub-projects:

  • Dynamic value change analysis: applying MERIT’s Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) to understand economic value chains in greater detail, so planners can use this information to identify and mitigate pinch points in the economy that could delay response, recovery and rebuild.
  • Welfare impacts by household type: extending MERIT capabilities to cover ‘welfare’ impacts to enable decision-makers and planners to target resilience measures to the most vulnerable communities.
  • Dynamic assessment of multiple capitals: extending MERIT to provide decision-makers with assessments of the physical and financial impacts of natural hazards as well as social and environmental impacts.

Our goal is for MERIT to provide resilience decision-makers with a robust decision support system that gives them a broad and detailed understanding of the changing financial, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards.

Resource Outputs from this project

Article

A review of graphical methods to map the natural hazards-to-wellbeing risk chain in a socio-ecological systems

Juan J. Monge, Nicola McDonald, Garry W. McDonald, A review of graphical methods to map the natural hazard-to-wellbeing risk chain in a socio-ecological system, Science…

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Article

Assessing the Implications of Land Returned to the Te Hiku Iwi Collective, Tai Tokerau, Aotearoa New Zealand

McDonald GW, Kingi TT, Kim JH, Dowling L, Journeaux P, Dunningham A, Wakelin S, Monge J, Hock B. 2021. Assessing the economic implications of land…

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Article

Simulation of post volcanic eruption land use and economic recovery pathways over a period of 20 years in the Auckland region of New Zealand

Cardwell RJ, McDonald GW, Wotherspoon LM. 2020. Simulation of post-volcanic eruption time variant land use and economic impacts in the Auckland region of New Zealand.…

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Article

Wellington Resilience Programme Business Case: Modelling the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Tool (MERIT) Assumptions Report.

Smith N, McDonald G, Kim J-H, Ayers M, Brown C, Seville E. 2017. Wellington Resilience Programme Business Case: Modelling the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Tool…

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Report

Economic impact of the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake

Market Economics Limited. 2017. Economic impact of the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake. Auckland (NZ): Market Economics Limited. 56 p. Prepared for Ministry of Transport

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Article

Earthquake-induced transportation disruption and economic performance: The experience of Christchurch, New Zealand

Yonson R, Noy I, Ivory VC, Bowie C. 2020. Earthquake-induced transportation disruption and economic performance: the experience of Christchurch, New Zealand. Journal of Transport Geography.…

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Article

Simulation of post-volcanic eruption time variant land use and economic impacts in the Auckland region of New Zealand.

Cardwell RJ, McDonald GW, Wotherspoon LM. 2020. Simulation of post-volcanic eruption time variant land use and economic impacts in the Auckland region of New Zealand.…

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Article

Towards a Dynamic Equilibrium-Seeking Model of a Closed Economy

McDonald NJ, McDonald GW. 2020. Towards a dynamic equilibrium-seeking model of a closed economy. Systems. 8(4):42. doi:10.3390/systems8040042.

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Article

The spatial and temporal ‘cost’ of volcanic eruptions: assessing the economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand.

McDonald GW, Smith NJ, Kim J-h, Cronin SJ, Proctor JN. 2017. The spatial and temporal ‘cost’ of volcanic eruptions: assessing economic impact, business inoperability, and…

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Article

Computable general equilibrium modelling of economic impacts from volcanic event scenarios at regional and national scale, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand.

McDonald GW, Cronin SJ, Kim JH, Smith NJ, Murray CA, Procter JN. 2017. Computable general equilibrium modelling of economic impacts from volcanic event scenarios at…

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Article

Economic Systems Modelling of Infrastructure Interdependencies for an Alpine Fault Earthquake in New Zealand

McDonald GW, Smith NJ, Kim J-H, Brown C, Buxton R, Seville E. 2018. Economic systems modelling of infrastructure interdependencies for an Alpine Fault earthquake in…

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Article

Disentangling environmental and economic contributions to hydro-economic model output uncertainty: An example in the context of land-use change impact assessment

Knowling MJ, White JT, McDonald GW, Kim J-H, Moore CR, Hemmings B. 2020. Disentangling environmental and economic contributions to hydro-economic model output uncertainty: An example…

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