Earthquake & Tsunami

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Earthquake Tsunami

Earthquake & Tsunami

Ngā Rū me ngā Tai Āniwhaniwha

Earthquake Tsunami
Programme Leader(s)
Team Leader Bill Fry
GNS Science
Team Leader Andy Nicol
University of Canterbury

Vision

Innovative earthquake science to make Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy, infrastructure and communities more resilient to earthquakes and the hazards they cause.

Programme description

The risk posed to Aotearoa New Zealand’s prosperity and people by earthquakes and their consequences has been clearly demonstrated by research and recent observations of the 2010-11 Canterbury and 2016 Kaikōura earthquakes. Our national resilience to earthquakes can be improved with reliable earthquake and tsunami hazard models, and more detailed understanding of earthquakes and the hazards they cause, including ground shaking, tsunami and landslides.

We aim to give decision-makers and planners the insights they need to effectively mitigate the risk of earthquakes and the primary (strong ground shaking) and secondary (tsunami, landslides) hazards they cause.

To achieve this, we are working closely with stakeholders and partners in central and local government to:

  • Create computer models of the earthquake process specific to Aotearoa New Zealand and test those models against earthquakes we see in nature. This results in catalogues of synthetic earthquakes that helps us overcome the challenges posed by the short window of real earthquake observations we have.
  • Use these catalogues to improve our understanding of likely impacts from earthquakes including strong ground shaking, tsunamis and landslides.
  • Test the usefulness of available earthquake and tsunami early warning technologies, and make recommendations for suitable warning systems for Aotearoa New Zealand. Refined estimates of the likelihood of large earthquakes and the hazards they cause will improve Aotearoa New Zealand’s resilience by helping decision-makers, businesses and communities plan and take mitigation actions.

Wawata

Kia auaha te pūtaiao mō ngā rū kia manawaroa ake ai te ōhanga, te tūāhanga me ngā hapori ki ngā rū me ōna mōreareatanga.

Whakaahuatanga papatono

Kua āta whakaatuhia e ngā rangahau me ngā tirohanga o ngā rū i Ōtautahi i ngā tau 2010-11, i Kaikōura hoki i te tau 2016 i ngā tūraru me ngā hua o ngā rū ka pā ki te tōnuitanga me ngā tāngata o Aotearoa.  Ka taea te whakapai ake i tō mātou manawaroa ki ngā rū mā ngā tauira horopū mō ngā mōrearea rū, tai āniwhaniwha hoki, me te mārama āmiki ki ngā rū me ōna mōreareatanga, tae atu ki te rū o te whenua, te tai āniwhaniwha me te horowhenua.

E whai ana mātou ki te tuku māramatanga ki ngā kaiwhakatau me ngā kaiwhakamahere e pai ai te whakamauru i te tūraru o ngā rū me ōna mōrearea matua (te kaha rū o te whenua), mōrearea mātāmuri hoki (tai āniwhaniwha, horowhenua).

Hei whakatutuki i tēnei, kei te mahi tahi mātou ki te hunga whaipānga me ngā hoa rangapū i te kāwanatanga ā-motu, ā-rohe hoki ki te:

  • Waihanga i ētahi tauira rorohiko o te tukanga rū motuhake ki Aotearoa, ka whakamātauhia aua tauira ki ngā rū ka kitea i te taiao. Ko te hua o tēnei ko ngā rārangi rū horihori hei āwhina i a mātou ki te tūraki i ngā uauatanga ka puta i te iti noa o ā mātou tirohanga ki ngā rū tūturu.
  • Whakamahi i ēnei rārangi kia mārama ake mātou ki ngā pāpātanga ka puta pea i ngā rū, tae atu ki te kaha o te rū o te whenua, ngā tai āniwhaniwha me ngā horowhenua.
  • Whakamātau i te pai o ngā hangarau whakatūpato tōmua e wātea ana, ka tuku tūtohunga hoki mō ngā pūnaha whakatūpato e tika ana mō Aotearoa. Mā ngā whakatau tata pakari mō te tūponotanga ka puta tētahi rū nui me ōna mōrearea e whakapai ake ai i te manawaroa o Aotearoa mā te āwhina i ngā kaiwhakatau, ngā pakihi me ngā hapori ki te whakamahere, ki te whai hoki i ngā whakaritenga whakamauru.

Questions we’re answering

1
How can a catalogue of synthetic earthquakes be constructed and used to improve computer forecasting models for Aotearoa New Zealand?
01 Earthquake Project 01
Active

Fault Model Construction

View project
2
How can we ensure the synthetic earthquake catalogue reliably reflects reality?
01 Earthquake Project 02
Active

Catalogue Testing & Verification

View project
3
What is the likelihood of destructive tsunamis caused by earthquakes in offshore Aotearoa New Zealand and the Tonga-Kermadec region?
01 earthquake project 03b
Active

Probabilistic Tsunami Model

View project
4
How suitable are available earthquake and tsunami early warning technologies for the Aotearoa New Zealand context?
01 Earthquake Project 04
Active

Testing Early Warning Systems

View project
5
How do local landforms influence the amount of ground shaking caused by earthquakes and the risk of follow-on hazards such as landslides?
01 Earthquake Project 05
Active

Ground Motion & Co-seismic Landslides

View project

Research Team

Mark Stirling
University of Otago
Matt Gerstenberger
GNS Science
Anna Kaiser
GNS Science
Caroline Holden
SeismoCity
Chris Massey
GNS Science
Emily Lane
NIWA
William Power
GNS Science
Bruce Shaw
Columbia University
Charles Williams
GNS Science
David Dempsey
The University of Auckland
Hannu Seebeck
GNS Science
Joshu Mountjoy
NIWA
Andy Howell
University of Canterbury
Michelle van Rheede
University of Canterbury
Phil Barnes
NIWA
Sarah-Jayne McCurrach
EQC
Tim Sullivan
University of Canterbury
Yiwun (Mika) Liao
University of Canterbury
PhD Student
Laura Hughes
Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington
PhD Student
Govinda Niroula
University of Canterbury
PhD Student
Jade Humphrey
University of Canterbury
PhD Student
Rasika Nandana
Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington
PhD Student
Jorge Alberto Guizar Alfaro
University of Canterbury
PhD Student

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