For emerging decision-making methodologies to be supported by the latest generation of economic, risk and impact modelling.
Resilience planning has traditionally focused on mitigating the most likely future conditions. However, research indicates that communities are increasingly seeking resilience decisions that are robust across a broad range of assumptions and possible futures.
Collaborating with our peers in the Resilience, Policy and Governance programme we are investigating how the decision-support modelling tools, RiskScape and MERIT, can best be used by decision-makers in planning for uncertain future events and conditions. This research is organised into two projects:
Our goal is for resilience decision-makers in Aotearoa New Zealand to successfully plan resilient futures for our economy, communities and environment under conditions of uncertainty.
Determining the best investment options to reduce overall event losses following "shock" events using a hypothetical Wellington earthquake scenario.
Brown, C., Abeling, S., Horsfall, S., Ferner, H. & Cowan, H. (2022). Societal expectations for seismic performance of buildings. Resilient Organisations. https://www.resorgs.org.nz/publications/societal-expectations-for-seismic-performance-of-buildings/
Abeling, S., Horsfall, S., Brown, C., Ferner, H. & Cowan, H. (2022). Societal expectations for seismic performance of buildings: detailed report on interviews. Resilient Organisations. https://www.resorgs.org.nz/publications/societal-expectations-for-seismic-performance-of-buildings-detailed-report-on-interviews/
Horsfall, S., Brown, C., Abeling, S., Ferner, H. & Cowan, H. (2022). Societal expectations for seismic performance of buildings: detailed report on focus groups. Resilient Organisations.…
Ball, R.J., Hudson-Doyle, E. E., Nuth, M., Hopkins, J.W., Brunsdon, D. & Brown, C.O. (2022). Behavioural science applied to risk-based decision processes: a case study…
Brown, B., Seville, E., Sorsfall, S., Bugler, G., Brunsdon, D.& Hare, J. (2022). Seismic repair and retrofit prioritization framework. Earthquake Spectra, 38 (4). https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930221109292
Presentation on MERIT modelling tool from Nicky McDonald (MEResearch), Charlotte Brown (Resilient Organisations) and Michele Daly (GNS Science), March 2022
How the MERIT took helps communities understand the social and economic impacts of disruptive events, and assess mitigation options.
Hatton, T., & Brown, C. (2021). Building adaptive business continuity plans: Practical tips on how to inject adaptiveness into continuity planning processes. Journal of business…
Chang SE, Brown C, Dormady N, Handmer J, Kajitani Y, Keating A, Rose A, Watson M, Wein A, Yamano N. 2020. Economic recovery: enabling comparative…
Noy I, Doan N, Ferrarini B, Park D. 2020. The economic risk of COVID-19 in developing countries: where is it highest? In: Djankov S, Panizza…
Pourzand F, Noy I, Sağlam Y. 2020. Droughts and farms’ financial performance: a farm-level study in New Zealand. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.…
Sampson K, Hatton T, Brown C. 2018. The silent assassin: Business demand changes following disaster. Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning. 12(1):79-93.
Brown CO, Hayes JL, Milke MW. 2021. Planning to adapt: identifying key decision drivers in disaster response planning. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems. 38(1):20-35. doi:10.1080/10286608.2021.1887155.