Embedding models within robust decision-making

Julian Thomson, GNS Science

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Embedding models within robust decision-making

State Active
Duration 2019 – 2024
Budget / Funding $879,000
Project Leader(s)
Charlotte Brown
Resilient Organisations


For emerging decision-making methodologies to be supported by the latest generation of economic, risk and impact modelling.

Project description

Resilience planning has traditionally focused on mitigating the most likely future conditions. However, research indicates that communities are increasingly seeking resilience decisions that are robust across a broad range of assumptions and possible futures.

Collaborating with our peers in the Resilience, Policy and Governance programme we are investigating how the decision-support modelling tools, RiskScape and MERIT, can best be used by decision-makers in planning for uncertain future events and conditions. This research is organised into two projects:

  • Computational experiments: generating representative scenarios that identify key vulnerabilities and trade-offs of alternative resilience-building strategies by exploring the consequences of alternative sets of assumptions in our risk and economic modelling.
  • Embedding modelling into emerging processes: applying RiskScape and MERIT as tools to support resilience decision-making in emerging processes such as Real Options, Hedging Strategies, Dynamic Adaptive Planning Pathways and Multi-Variate Assessment. These processes all facilitate resilience by helping decision-makers create long-term plans under conditions of uncertainty.

Our goal is for resilience decision-makers in Aotearoa New Zealand to successfully plan resilient futures for our economy, communities and environment under conditions of uncertainty.

Resource Outputs from this project

Output Type

Presentation slides, ‘Modelling Disruption’ webinar

Presentation on MERIT modelling tool from Nicky McDonald (MEResearch), Charlotte Brown (Resilient Organisations) and Michele Daly (GNS Science), March 2022

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Modelling Disruption webinar

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Building Adaptative Business Continuity Plans: Practical tips on how to inject adaptiveness into continuity planning processes

Hatton, T., & Brown, C. (2021). Building adaptive business continuity plans: Practical tips on how to inject adaptiveness into continuity planning processes. Journal of business…

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Economic Recovery: Enabling Comparative Research on COVID-19 CONVERGE COVID-19 Working Groups for Public Health and Social Science Research: Research Agenda-Setting Paper

Chang SE, Brown C, Dormady N, Handmer J, Kajitani Y, Keating A, Rose A, Watson M, Wein A, Yamano N. 2020. Economic recovery: enabling comparative…

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Measuring the Economic Risk of COVID-19 in Developing Countries: Where is it Higher?

Noy I, Doan N, Ferrarini B, Park D. 2020. The economic risk of COVID-19 in developing countries: where is it highest? In: Djankov S, Panizza…

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Droughts and farms’ financial performance: a farm‐level study in New Zealand

Pourzand F, Noy I, Sağlam Y. 2020. Droughts and farms’ financial performance: a farm-level study in New Zealand. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.…

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The silent assassin: Business demand changes following disaster

Sampson K, Hatton T, Brown C. 2018. The silent assassin: Business demand changes following disaster. Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning. 12(1):79-93.

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Planning to Adapt: Identifying Key Decision Drivers in Disaster Response Planning

Brown CO, Hayes JL, Milke MW. 2021. Planning to adapt: identifying key decision drivers in disaster response planning. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems. 38(1):20-35. doi:10.1080/10286608.2021.1887155.

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