Multihazard Risk

Graham Hancox, GNS Science

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Multihazard Risk

Multihazard Risk

Ngā Tūraru Mōrearea-matarau

Multihazard Risk
Programme Leader(s)
Team Leader Mark Bebbington
Massey University
Team Leader Garry Mcdonald
MEResearch

Vision

For resilience decision-making in Aotearoa New Zealand to be supported by world-leading forecasting models and decision-making tools that quantify the economic, social and environmental impacts of multihazards.

Programme description

Natural hazards often do not occur on their own but as part of a cascade of triggered events, or at the same time as other natural hazards by coincidence. These possibilities involve interactions and dependencies in hazard, impact, exposure and vulnerability that have not yet been understood or integrated into resilience modelling and decision-making.

We aim to provide resilience decision-makers with tools and methodologies that account for dynamic risk processes so they can plan for the impacts of multiple hazards. This will include insights into the economic, social and environmental impacts of multi-hazards, and how to ensure resilience planning and recovery efforts align with Te Ao Māori.

To do this, we are working with stakeholders and partners in central and local government and hapū and iwi to:

  • develop the necessary mathematical and computational modelling methods to account for multiple and cascading hazards and the linked impacts to infrastructure.
  • test the multihazard models we are developing with a case study.
  • improve the MERIT (Measuring the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure) decision support tool to capture more impacts and provide insights into the changing nature of these impacts.
  • investigate how the decision-support modelling tools RiskScape and MERIT can best be used by decision-makers in planning for uncertain future events and conditions.
  • carry out kaupapa Māori and mātauranga Māori research to gain a better understand of Māori perspectives on hazard and risk.

Wawata

Kia tautokona ngā whakatau manawaroa i Aotearoa e ngā tauira matapae rangatira o te ao me ngā rauemi whakatau hei ine i te maha o ngā pānga o ngā mōrearea-matarau ki te ohanga, pāpori me te taiao.

Whakaahuatanga papatono

I te nuinga o ngā wā, kāore ngā mōrearea taiao e puta tūhāhā engari he āhuatanga kē o tētahi takunetanga e puta haere ana, ka puta orua rānei i te wā ka puta tētahi atu mōrearea taiao. He pāhekohekotanga, he whakawhirinakitanga tō ēnei tūponotanga i roto i ngā mōrearea, pānga, whakaraerae hoki, kāore anō kia māramatia, kia whakauruurutia rānei ki ngā mahi whakatauira manawaroa, whakatau hoki.

E whai ana mātou ki te whakarato i ngā rauemi me ngā tikanga ki ngā kaiwhakatau manawaroa e whakamāramatia nei i ngā pūnaha tūraru hihiri e taea ai e rātou te whakamahere i ngā pānga o ngā tini mōrearea. Ko uru hoki ko ngā tirohanga ki ngā pānga o ngā mōrearea-matarau ki te ohanga, pāpori me te taiao, ā, me pēhea e whakarite e hāngai ana ngā mahere manawaroa me ngā mahi whakaora ki Te Ao Māori.

Hei whakatutuki i tēnei, kei te mahi tahi mātou ki te hunga whaipānga me ngā hoa rangapū i te kāwanatanga ā-motu, ā-rohe, ngā hapū me ngā iwi ki te:

  • whakawhanake i ngā tikanga whakatauira ā-pāngarau, ā-rorohiko hei whakamārama i ngā tini mōrearea e puta haere ana me ngā pānga e hāngai ana ki te tūāhanga
  • whakamātau i ngā tauira mōrearea-matarau e whakawhanaketia ana e mātou mā tētahi take rangahau.
  • whakapakari i te rauemi tautoko whakatau MERIT (Measuring the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure) hei hopu i ētahi atu pānga me te whakarato tirohanga ki te rerekē haere o te āhua o ēnei pānga.
  • tūhura me pēhea ngā kaiwhakatau e whakamahi i ngā rauemi whakatauira tautoko-whakatau a RiskScape me MERIT ki tōna painga ki te whakamahere i ngā takunetanga me ngā āhuatanga ohorere o anamata.
  • whakahaere rangahau kaupapa Māori, mātauranga Māori hoki kia whai māramatanga pai ake o ngā tūraru me ngā mōrearea.

Questions we’re answering

1
How can multiple and cascading hazards and impacts be incorporated into forecasts of natural hazards?
05 Multihazard Project 01
Active

Multihazard forecasting and impact modelling

View project
2
How are we demonstrating that our new modelling techniques are reliable and functional?
05 Multihazard Project 02
Active

Multihazard Case Study

View project
3
What are the financial, social and environmental impacts of our natural hazards?
05 Multihazard Project 03
Active

Dynamic Assessment of Impacts

View project
4
How can our new modelling techniques be incorporated into the latest resilience decision-making methodologies?
05 Multihazard Project 04
Active

Embedding models within robust decision-making

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5
How can mātauranga Māori become an integral part of resilience planning in Aotearoa New Zealand?
05 Multihazard Project 05
Active

Māori perspectives on risk

Ngā tirohanga Māori ki te tūraru

View project

Research Team

Mark Bebbington
Massey University
Garry McDonald
MEResearch
Charlotte Brown
Resilient Organisations
Tim Davies
University of Canterbury
Taiarahia Black
Ngāi Tūhoe, Te Whānau a Apanui, Te Arawa
Te Whare Wānanga o Awanuiārangi
Emma Hudson-Doyle
Massey University
Nicky McDonald
MEResearch
Stuart Mead
Massey University
Alex Dunant
Durham University, UK
David Harte
Statistics Research Associates
Emily Harvey
MEResearch
Murray Hicks
NIWA
Ryan Paulik
NIWA
Ilan Noy
Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington
Juan Monge
MEResearch
Nic Mostert
Massey University
Melody Whitehead
Massey University
Alec Wild
NIWA
Anthony Cole
Te Toi Ohanga Limited
Anita Wreford
Lincoln University
Harvey Porter
NIWA, University of Canterbury
Les Dowling
MEResearch
Nam Bui
MEResearch
Steffania Mattea
MEResearch
Duncan Grimson
Massey University
PhD Student
Annal Dhungana
Massey University
PhD Student
Thomas Price
Lincoln University
PhD Student
Tamati Waka
Te Whare Wānanga o Awanuiārangi
PhD Student
Maryam Tagharobi
Massey University
PhD Student
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