Time-varying Multihazard forecasting
Te matapae i ngā tini-mōrearea
When will our volcanoes become angry?
Āhea riri ai ngā maunga puia?
Programme Leader(s)
Jon Procter
Muaupoko, Ngāi Tahu
Massey University
GNS Science
Vision
Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy, infrastructure and society is resilient to the threats posed by our active volcanoes.
Programme description
Volcanoes threaten Aotearoa New Zealand’s resilience with many complex hazards that can impact large areas with permanent landscape changes. The most urgent threats are to the surrounding communities, those downwind of our volcanoes, and the transport, electricity, tourism and agricultural sectors.
We aim to develop resilience and mitigation solutions for threatened areas by integrating our improved knowledge of the multiple and dynamic threats of volcanic activity into long-term planning and emergency management processes.
To achieve this, we worked with our stakeholders and partners, including GeoNet, iwi and hapū, local government, and Volcano Advisory Groups. Our research is organised into three closely related projects that are creating reliable forecasts of volcanic activity in Aotearoa New Zealand, providing greater certainty about the hazards and impacts of volcanic eruptions, and integrating the improved forecasting ability into governance and emergency planning.
Our work is closely aligned with the Whanake te Kura I Tawhiti Nui programme to investigate the synergies that exist between a western science understanding of the evolution of landscapes and those derived from the Māori worldview or putaiao. Our mitigation solutions and resulting co-governance structures will recognise the deep cultural connection Māori have with our volcanoes and build kaitiakitanga.
Our goal is for decision-makers in Aotearoa New Zealand to have the knowledge they need to implement effective volcanic resilience and mitigation solutions.
Wawata
He manawaroa te ohanga, te tūāhanga me te pāpori ki ngā mōrearea ka puta pea i ngā puia oho.
Whakaahuatanga papatono
Ka raru te puia i te pakari o Aotearoa Niu Tireni me te nui o nga morearea morearea e pa ana ki nga waahanga nui me nga whakarereke whenua tuuturu. Ko nga tuma tino mate nui ko nga hapori e karapoti ana, nga heke o o tatou puia, me te kawe, hiko, tuuruhi me nga waahanga ahuwhenua.
E whaaia ana e taatau te whakapakari ake i nga rongo whakaoranga me nga whakaahuru mo nga waahi whakamataku ma te whakakotahi i te maatauranga o taatau mo te tini o nga tuma hihiko o te mahi puia ki roto i nga whakamahere mo te wa roa me nga whakahaere whakahaere ohorere.
Hei whakatutuki i tenei, kei te mahi tahi matou me o matou rangatira me o matou hoa mahi, tae atu ki a GeoNet, iwi me nga hapū, te kaawanatanga a rohe, me nga roopu Tohutohu a Volcano. I whakaritehia a maatau rangahau ki roto i nga kaupapa e toru e hono tata ana e hanga ana i nga matapae pono mo te mahi puia i Aotearoa Niu Tireni, me te tino mohio mo nga morearea me nga paanga o te puia o te puia, me te whakakotahi i te kaha o te matapae o te matapae ki te whakariterite me te whakamahere ohorere.
Ko ta matau mahi e haangai tata ana ki te hotaka o Whanake te Kura I Tawhiti Nui ki te tirotiro i nga mahi honohonotanga kei waenga i te maatauranga putaiao o te hauauru mo te whanaketanga o nga whenua me nga mea i ahu mai i te tirohanga a te ao Maori, putaiao ranei. Ma a maatau whakaoranga me nga hanganga whakahaere-tahi ka mohio te hononga ahurea hohonu a te Maori me o tatou puia, ka hanga kaitiakitanga.
Ko ta maatau whainga kia whai maataata nga kai-whakatau i Aotearoa Niu Tireni ki te whakamahi i te kaha o te puia me te whakaohonga.
Questions we’re answering
1
What are the likelihood and scale of volcanic eruptions in Aotearoa New Zealand, and what types of volcanic hazards are most likely to unfold?
Phase 22
What impacts will volcanic eruptions have on our economy, infrastructure and society?
Phase 2Volcanic Impact Models – The ‘eVolcano Testing Lab’
Ngā tauira pāpātanga puia – te ‘Taiwhanga Whakamātau eVolcano’
3
How can new volcanic hazard knowledge be interwoven with mātauranga Māori to inform decision-making and emergency management planning?
Phase 2Research Team
Jon Procter
Muaupoko, Ngāi Tahu
Massey University
Christina Magill
GNS Science
Mark Bebbington
Massey University
Gabor Kereszturi
Massey University
Gert Lube
Massey University
Stuart Mead
Massey University
Karoly Nemeth
Massey University
Melody Whitehead
Massey University
Carol Stewart
Massey University
Martha Savage
Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington
Geoff Kilgour
GNS Science
Graham Leonard
GNS Science
Tom Wilson
University of Canterbury
Colin Wilson
Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington
Anke Zernack
Massey University
Kristie-Lee Thomas
Ngāti Mutunga o Wharekauri, Te Āti Awa, Ngai Tohora, Rapuwai
University of Canterbury
Mary-Anne Clive
GNS Science
Shane Cronin
The University of Auckland
Rebecca Fitzgerald
Massey University and GNS Science
Ben Kennedy
University of Canterbury
Ting Wang
University of Otago
Alana Weir
University of Canterbury
Brenda Contla Hernandez
Massey University
PhD Student
Pip Tildesley
Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington
PhD Student
Brian Perttu
Massey University
PhD Student
Anna Perttu
Massey University
PhD Student
Geoffrey Roberts
Massey University
PhD Student
Volcanoes
Latest Resource Outputs
Article
Rock alteration mapping in and around fossil shallow intrusions at Mt. Ruapehu New Zealand with laboratory and aerial hyperspectral imaging
Rock alteration influences volcano stability and related hazards. Can hyperspectral data be used to accurately quantify alteration around volcanoes?
Article
Characteristics and controls of the runout behaviour of non-Boussinesq particle-laden gravity currents – A large-scale experimental investigation of dilute pyroclastic density currents
Large-scale experiments using hot volcanic material provide insights into pyroclastic flow behaviour that can inform hazard mitigation.
Webinar
He Haerenga Mōrearea – A Hazardous Journey
Mātauranga Māori and mātauranga-a-iwi approaches to emergency management and decision making for disaster risk reduction.
Video
Pyroclastic flow experiments to improve volcanic hazard models
Large-scale experiments are providing new insights one of the most dangerous volcanic hazards so we can better predict their impacts and behaviour.
Article
Insights into the internal dynamics of natural lahars from the analysis of 3-component broadband seismic signals.
Walsh B, Coviello V, Capra L, Procter J, Márquez-Ramirez V. 2020. Insights Into the internal dynamics of natural lahars from analysis of 3-component broadband seismic…
Article
Agriculture and forestry impact assessment for tephra fall hazard: Fragility function development and New Zealand scenario application
Fragility functions are then used to demonstrate a deterministic impact assessment with current New Zealand exposure.