Time-varying Multihazard forecasting

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Time-varying Multihazard forcasting

Te matapae i ngā tini-mōrearea

State Active
Duration 2019 – 2024
Budget / Funding $2,311,000
Project Leader(s)
Jon Procter
Muaupoko, Ngāi Tahu
Massey University
GNS Science

Vision

Decision-makers and emergency management planners in Aotearoa New Zealand have greater certainty about the likelihood and scale of volcanic eruptions and the types of natural hazards most likely to unfold.

Project description

Volcanic eruptions in Aotearoa New Zealand can have devastating impacts on our infrastructure, communities, environment and economy. Our ability to forecast volcanic activity has been hampered by large variations in the size and frequency of historical eruptions. Even once an eruption has started, there is little certainty about whether and how hazards such as lahars, ash clouds, and pyroclastic flows will unfold.

We aim to improve forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of eruptions of our volcanoes. Our work will also improve forecasts of eruption duration, magnitude and hazards once they have already started.

We are working with hapū and iwi and central and local government stakeholders to:

  • Create a detailed dataset of hazards from past eruptions in Aotearoa New Zealand
  • Use historical records of volcano activity to model the duration of eruption phases of our cone volcanoes and how often the eruption phases occur
  • Develop new models to forecast the long-term eruption cycles and multi-hazards of Aotearoa New Zealand’s volcanoes.
  • Develop tools to make daily probabilistic forecasts of eruption styles, durations, magnitudes and hazards during eruptions.

This work will give decision-makers and emergency management planners greater certainty about the frequency and scale of volcanic eruptions and the nature of the hazards that can unfold. It will also help with effective management in response to eruptions when they occur.

Wawata

Kia mārama pū ngā kaiwhakatau me ngā kaiwhakamahere whakahaere ohotata i Aotearoa ki te tūponotanga me te korahi o ngā hūnga puia me ngā momo mōrearea o te taiao ka hua ake pea.

Whakaahuatanga papatono

Ka whakamōtī ngā hūnga puia i Aotearoa i tā tātou tūāhanga, hapori, taiao, ōhanga hoki. Kua whakararutia tā mātou āheinga ki te matapae i te ahi tipua nā ngā rerekētanga nui o te rahi me te auau o ngā hūnga o mua. I te hūnga mai o tētahi puia, kāore tonu i te tino mōhio ka pēhea ngā āhuatanga mōrearea pērā i ngā rahā, ngā kapua pungarehu, ngā rere tipua hoki e puta mai.

E whai ana mātou ki te whakapai ake i ngā matapae mō te auau me te nui o ngā hūnga o ō tātou puia. Ka whakapai ake hoki ā mātou mahi i ngā matapae mō te roa o ngā hūnga, te nui me ngā mōrearea ina tīmata te hū.

Kei te mahi tahi mātou me ngā hapū, ngā iwi me te hunga whaipānga o te kāwanatanga ā-rohe ki te:

  • Waihanga i tētahi huinga raraunga āmiki mō ngā mōrearea o ngā hūnga o mua i Aotearoa
  • Whai i ngā pūkete o mua ki te whakatauira i te roa o ngā wāhanga hū o ō mātou puia koeko, me te maha o te putanga mai o ngā wāhanga hū
  • Whakawhanake i ngā tauira hou hei matapae i ngā huringa hū mauroa me ngā tini-mōrearea o ngā puia o Aotearoa.
  • Whakawhanake i ngā taputapu hei matapae i ia rā te tūponotanga o ngā kāhua hū, te roa, te nui me ngā mōrearea ka puta i ngā wā o te hū.

Mā tēnei mahi e mōhio pū ai ngā kaiwhakatau me ngā kaiwhakamahere whakahaere ohotata ki te auau me te nui o ngā hūnga puia me te āhua o ngā mōrearea ka puta ake. Ka āwhina hoki i te pai o ngā whakahaere ina hū mai tētahi puia.

Resource Outputs from this project

Article

Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Alec J. Wild, Mark S. Bebbington, Jan M. Lindsay, Danielle H. Charlton, Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field,…

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Article

Volcanic hazards to Taranaki Crossing from Taranaki and Fanthams Peak

Mead S, Procter J, Bebbington M. 2020. Volcanic hazards to Taranaki Crossing from Taranaki and Fanthams Peak. Wellington (NZ): Department of Conservation.

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Report

Lahar hazard assessment for Whakapapa Ski Area, Ruapehu Volcano

Mead S, Procter J, Bebbington M. 2020. Lahar hazard assessment for Whakapapa ski area, Ruapehu volcano.

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Presentation

Presentation slides, ‘How do volcanologists forecast eruptions?’ webinar

Dr Mel Whitehead presentation, 'How do volcanologists forecast eruptions?' webinar, May 2022

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Webinar

‘How do volcanologists forecast eruptions?’ webinar

View Webinar
Article

Probabilistic modelling of multi-phase eruptions found in geological records: An example from Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand

Voloschina M, Bebbington M, Lube G, Procter J. 2021. Probabilistic modelling of multi-phase eruptions found in geological records: an example from Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand.…

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Article

Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment for national park infrastructure proximal to Taranaki Volcano

Mead, S.R., Procter, J.N., Bebbington, M. & Rodriguez-Gomez, C. 2022. Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment for national park infrastructure proximal to Taranaki Volcano. Frontiers in Earth…

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Article

Volcanic air pollution and human health: recent advances and future directions

Stewart, C., Damby, D.E., Horwell, C.J., Elias, T., Ilyinskaya, E., Tomašek, I., Longo, B.M., Schmidt, A., Carlsen, H.K., Mason, E., Baxter, P.J., Cronin, S. &…

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Article

Intra-eruption forecasting using analogue volcano and eruption sets

Bebbington, M. & Jenkins, S.F. 2022. Intra-eruption forecasting using analogue volcano and eruption sets. Journal of Geophysical Research, 127(6). doi:10.1029/2022jb024343

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