Decisions about safe and sustainable development and emergency management planning in Aotearoa New Zealand are supported by reliable and detailed forecasts of the hazards and impacts of volcanic eruptions.
Decisions about development, infrastructure investment and emergency planning in our volcanic areas should ideally be based on reliable forecasts of volcanic hazards and the likely impacts on communities, infrastructure and the economy. Historically, the technology and detailed insights required for such forecasts have not been available.
In tandem with the Multi-hazard Forecasting project, we are developing reliable forecasts of complex and variable volcanic hazards and impacts. When eruptions occur, our work will also provide detailed information about likely hazards and impacts to inform emergency response decisions.
To achieve this, we are developing new computational simulation tools to forecast specific hazard processes such as lava flows, ash dispersal, ballistics, and gas before and during eruptions. We are also systematically studying and testing the impacts of these hazards on infrastructure and the environment. Specifically, we are:
By providing decision-makers and emergency management planners with reliable forecasts of volcanic hazards and impacts, our goal is for Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy, infrastructure and society to be more resilient to volcanic activity.
E tautokohia ana ngā whakataunga mō te whakawhanake haumaru, toitū hoki, me te whakamahere whakahaere ohotata i Aotearoa e ngā matapae horopū, āmiki hoki mō ngā mōrearea me ngā pāpātanga puia.
Me aro ngā whakataunga mō te whakawhanaketanga, te haumitanga tūāhanga me te whakamahere ohotata i ngā rohe puia ki ngā matapae horopū mō ngā mōrearea puia me ngā pāpātanga ka pā pea ki ngā hapori, ki te tūāhanga me te ōhanga. I mua, kāore he hangarau, kāore he tirohanga āmiki mō aua momo matapae.
I te taha i te Kaupapa Te Matapae i ngā Tini-mōrearea, e whakawhanake ana mātou i ngā matapae horopū mō ngā mōrearea puia me ngā pāpātanga taurangi, tuatini hoki. Ina puta tētahi hūnga, ko tā mātou mahi he tuku i ngā mōhiohio āmiki mō ngā mōrearea me ngā pāpātanga ka puta pea hei ārahi i ngā whakataunga urupare ohotata.
Hei whakatutuki i tēnei, kei te whakawhanake mātou i ngā rauemi whaihanga ā-rorohiko hei matapae i ētahi tukanga mōrearea pērā i ngā tere tahepuia, te hora o te pungarehu, te āhua o te whiu o ngā toka puia, me te haurehu i mua, i te wā hoki o te hūnga. E rangahau, e whakamātau nahanaha ana hoki mātou i ngā pāpātanga o ēnei mōrearea ki te tūāhanga me te taiao. Inarā, kei te:
Mā te tuku i ngā matapae horopū mō ngā mōrearea me ngā pāpātanga o ngā puia ki ngā kaiwhakamahere whakahaere ohotata, ko tō mātou whāinga kia manawaroa ake te ōhanga, te tūāhanga me te pāpori o Aotearoa ki ngā ahi tipua.
Mead, S.R., Procter, J.N., Bebbington, M. & Rodriguez-Gomez, C. (2022) Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment for national park infrastructure proximal to Taranaki Volcano. Frontiers in Earth…
Mead, S.R., Procter, J. & Kereszturi, G. (2021) Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations. Natural Hazards and Earth Systems…
Brosch, E., Lube, G., Cerminara, M. et al. (2021) Destructiveness of pyroclastic surges controlled by turbulent fluctuations. Nature Communications 12, 7306. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27517-9
Mead, S.R., Procter, J.N. & Bebbington, M. 2022. Probabilistic volcanic mass flow hazard assessment using statistical surrogates of deterministic simulations. Earth and Space Science Open…
Procter J, Mead S, Bebbington M. 2020. Quantifying asset and visitor risk at Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand from multiple volcanic hazards [abstract]. In. European Geosciences…
Fitzgerald RH, Kennedy BM, Gomez C, Wilson TM, Simons B, Leonard GS, Matoza RS, Jolly AD, Garaebiti E. 2020. Volcanic ballistic projectile deposition from a…
Alec J. Wild, Mark S. Bebbington, Jan M. Lindsay, Danielle H. Charlton, Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field,…