Volcanic Impact Models – The ‘eVolcano Testing Lab’

Taranaki mounga. Lloyd Homer, GNS Science

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Volcanic Impact Models - The ‘eVolcano Testing Lab’

Ngā tauira pāpātanga puia – te ‘Taiwhanga Whakamātau eVolcano’

State Active
Duration 2019 – 2024
Budget / Funding $1,701,000
Project Leader(s)
Jon Procter
Muaupoko, Ngāi Tahu
Massey University
GNS Science

Vision

Decisions about safe and sustainable development and emergency management planning in Aotearoa New Zealand are supported by reliable and detailed forecasts of the hazards and impacts of volcanic eruptions.

Project description

Decisions about development, infrastructure investment and emergency planning in our volcanic areas should ideally be based on reliable forecasts of volcanic hazards and the likely impacts on communities, infrastructure and the economy. Historically, the technology and detailed insights required for such forecasts have not been available.

In tandem with the Multi-hazard Forecasting project, we are developing reliable forecasts of complex and variable volcanic hazards and impacts. When eruptions occur, our work will also provide detailed information about likely hazards and impacts to inform emergency response decisions.

To achieve this, we are developing new computational simulation tools to forecast specific hazard processes such as lava flows, ash dispersal, ballistics, and gas before and during eruptions. We are also systematically studying and testing the impacts of these hazards on infrastructure and the environment. Specifically, we are:

  • Developing a new-generation volcanic impact analysis by testing the physical and chemical impacts of a range of volcanic activity.
  • Trialling new methods for collecting and visualising hazard impact data.
  • Mapping volcanic hazards with their impacts on infrastructure and the environment.
  • Developing a suite of new computational modelling tools for improving the assessment of volcanic hazards and likely impacts.

By providing decision-makers and emergency management planners with reliable forecasts of volcanic hazards and impacts, our goal is for Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy, infrastructure and society to be more resilient to volcanic activity.

Wawata

E tautokohia ana ngā whakataunga mō te whakawhanake haumaru, toitū hoki, me te whakamahere whakahaere ohotata i Aotearoa e ngā matapae horopū, āmiki hoki mō ngā mōrearea me ngā pāpātanga puia.

Whakaahuatanga papatono

Me aro ngā whakataunga mō te whakawhanaketanga, te haumitanga tūāhanga me te whakamahere ohotata i ngā rohe puia ki ngā matapae horopū mō ngā mōrearea puia me ngā pāpātanga ka pā pea ki ngā hapori, ki te tūāhanga me te ōhanga. I mua, kāore he hangarau, kāore he tirohanga āmiki mō aua momo matapae.

I te taha i te Kaupapa Te Matapae i ngā Tini-mōrearea, e whakawhanake ana mātou i ngā matapae horopū mō ngā mōrearea puia me ngā pāpātanga taurangi, tuatini hoki. Ina puta tētahi hūnga, ko tā mātou mahi he tuku i ngā mōhiohio āmiki mō ngā mōrearea me ngā pāpātanga ka puta pea hei ārahi i ngā whakataunga urupare ohotata.

Hei whakatutuki i tēnei, kei te whakawhanake mātou i ngā rauemi whaihanga ā-rorohiko hei matapae i ētahi tukanga mōrearea pērā i ngā tere tahepuia, te hora o te pungarehu, te āhua o te whiu o ngā toka puia, me te haurehu i mua, i te wā hoki o te hūnga. E rangahau, e whakamātau nahanaha ana hoki mātou i ngā pāpātanga o ēnei mōrearea ki te tūāhanga me te taiao. Inarā, kei te:

  • Whakawhanake i tētahi tātaritanga pāpātanga puia putanga-hou mā te whakamātau i ngā pāpātanga ōkiko, matū hoki o ētahi momo ahi tipua rerekē.
  • Whakamātau i ngā tikanga hou mō te kohi me te whakaatu i ngā raraunga pāpātanga mōrearea.
  • Whakamahere i ngā mōrearea puia me ngā pāpātanga ki te tūāhanga me te taiao.
  • Whakawhanake i tētahi huinga rauemi whakatauira ā-rorohiko hou hei whakapai ake i te arotake o ngā mōrearea puia me ngā pāpātanga e tinga ana.

Mā te tuku i ngā matapae horopū mō ngā mōrearea me ngā pāpātanga o ngā puia ki ngā kaiwhakamahere whakahaere ohotata, ko tō mātou whāinga kia manawaroa ake te ōhanga, te tūāhanga me te pāpori o Aotearoa ki ngā ahi tipua.

Resource Outputs from this project

Article

Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Alec J. Wild, Mark S. Bebbington, Jan M. Lindsay, Danielle H. Charlton, Modelling spatial population exposure and evacuation clearance time for the Auckland Volcanic Field,…

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Article

Volcanic ballistic projectile deposition from a continuously erupting volcano: Yasur Volcano, Vanuatu

Fitzgerald RH, Kennedy BM, Gomez C, Wilson TM, Simons B, Leonard GS, Matoza RS, Jolly AD, Garaebiti E. 2020. Volcanic ballistic projectile deposition from a…

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Article

Quantifying asset and visitor risk at Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand from multiple volcanic hazards.

Procter J, Mead S, Bebbington M. 2020. Quantifying asset and visitor risk at Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand from multiple volcanic hazards [abstract]. In. European Geosciences…

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Article

Probabilistic volcanic mass flow hazard assessment using statistical surrogates of deterministic simulations

Mead, S.R., Procter, J.N. & Bebbington, M. 2022. Probabilistic volcanic mass flow hazard assessment using statistical surrogates of deterministic simulations. Earth and Space Science Open…

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