The development of a million-year catalogue of ‘synthetic’ earthquakes that can shape the next generation of earthquake and tsunami hazard models for Aotearoa New Zealand.
The complete cycle of Aotearoa New Zealand’s earthquake activity spans thousands of years. Modern observations and data only cover the last few decades. This, combined with the incompleteness of geological information, means researchers have not captured the entire range of possible earthquakes, especially the largest, most devastating events.
To overcome this gap, our research team has created computational models of hundreds of thousands of years of ‘synthetic’ earthquakes.
To do this, we use existing geological and geophysical data to build a three-dimensional computer model of Aotearoa New Zealand and its faults and then use computer calculations to simulate forces that cause earthquakes. When the forces acting on a fault overcome its strength, this triggers a ‘synthetic’ earthquake. Researchers can then see how the synthetic earthquake redistributes stress onto other faults and leads to other earthquakes.
The catalogue provides researchers with a more complete record of Aotearoa New Zealand’s earthquakes with which to develop future earthquake and tsunami hazard models.
Our goal is to improve our estimates of the likelihood of further large earthquakes throughout Aotearoa New Zealand.
Shaw, B.E., Fry, B., Nicol, A., Howell, A. & Gerstenberger, M.C. 2022. An earthquake simulator for New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,…
Dr Andy Nicol and Dr Bill Fry presentations, 'Next generation earthquake and tsunami hazard and response' webinar, March 2021