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Next Generation Earthquake & Tsunami Hazard and Response

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New Zealand’s full seismic cycle is measured in thousands of years, yet available modern observations only cover the last few decades. The limited time-window of modern data and the incompleteness of geological information mean we can’t capture the entire range of possible natural earthquakes, especially the largest, most devastating events.

As part of our Earthquake & Tsunami programme, researchers have used earthquake cycle simulators to overcome many of the challenges of our limited modern observations by creating a million year catalogue of synthetic earthquakes.

In this webinar, Dr Bill Fry (GNS Science) and Prof Andy Nicol (University of Canterbury) introduce the current version of New Zealand’s first model of the full seismic cycle. The new catalogue has many applications, including great promise in underpinning next generation earthquake and tsunami hazard models.

In the closely aligned Rapid Characterisation of Earthquakes and Tsunamis programme (R-CET), we are using the synthetic catalogue to better understand what will happen after large earthquakes, and optimise our tools to provide more effective early warning and post-event forecasting of impacts.

Bill and Andy present two new applications:

  • Using the model to inform estimates of changes to groundwater flow due to ground deformation caused by large subduction earthquakes
  • Using the model to test the ability of New Zealand’s DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) buoy array to provide tsunami early warning for New Zealand’s biggest local earthquakes.
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