Embedding models within robust decision-making

Resilience planning has traditionally focused on mitigating the most likely future conditions. However, research indicates that communities are increasingly seeking resilience decisions that are robust across a broad range of assumptions and possible futures.

Collaborating with our peers in the Resilience, Policy and Governance programme we are investigating how the decision-support modelling tools, RiskScape and MERIT, can best be used by decision-makers in planning for uncertain future events and conditions. This research is organised into two projects:

• Computational experiments: generating representative scenarios that identify key vulnerabilities and trade-offs of alternative resilience-building strategies by exploring the consequences of alternative sets of assumptions in our risk and economic modelling.
• Embedding modelling into emerging processes: applying RiskScape and MERIT as tools to support resilience decision-making in emerging processes such as Real Options, Hedging Strategies, Dynamic Adaptive Planning Pathways and Multi-Variate Assessment. These processes all facilitate resilience by helping decision-makers create long-term plans under conditions of uncertainty.

Our goal is for resilience decision-makers in Aotearoa New Zealand to successfully plan resilient futures for our economy, communities and environment under conditions of uncertainty.