Vision
Decision-makers and emergency management planners in Aotearoa New Zealand have greater certainty about the likelihood and scale of volcanic eruptions and the types of natural hazards most likely to unfold.
Project description
Volcanic eruptions in Aotearoa New Zealand can have devastating impacts on our infrastructure, communities, environment and economy. Our ability to forecast volcanic activity has been hampered by large variations in the size and frequency of historical eruptions. Even once an eruption has started, there is little certainty about whether and how hazards such as lahars, ash clouds, and pyroclastic flows will unfold.
We aim to improve forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of eruptions of our volcanoes. Our work will also improve forecasts of eruption duration, magnitude and hazards once they have already started.
We are working with hapū and iwi and central and local government stakeholders to:
This work will give decision-makers and emergency management planners greater certainty about the frequency and scale of volcanic eruptions and the nature of the hazards that can unfold. It will also help with effective management in response to eruptions when they occur.
Wawata
Kia mārama pū ngā kaiwhakatau me ngā kaiwhakamahere whakahaere ohotata i Aotearoa ki te tūponotanga me te korahi o ngā hūnga puia me ngā momo mōrearea o te taiao ka hua ake pea.
Whakaahuatanga papatono
Ka whakamōtī ngā hūnga puia i Aotearoa i tā tātou tūāhanga, hapori, taiao, ōhanga hoki. Kua whakararutia tā mātou āheinga ki te matapae i te ahi tipua nā ngā rerekētanga nui o te rahi me te auau o ngā hūnga o mua. I te hūnga mai o tētahi puia, kāore tonu i te tino mōhio ka pēhea ngā āhuatanga mōrearea pērā i ngā rahā, ngā kapua pungarehu, ngā rere tipua hoki e puta mai.
E whai ana mātou ki te whakapai ake i ngā matapae mō te auau me te nui o ngā hūnga o ō tātou puia. Ka whakapai ake hoki ā mātou mahi i ngā matapae mō te roa o ngā hūnga, te nui me ngā mōrearea ina tīmata te hū.
Kei te mahi tahi mātou me ngā hapū, ngā iwi me te hunga whaipānga o te kāwanatanga ā-rohe ki te:
Mā tēnei mahi e mōhio pū ai ngā kaiwhakatau me ngā kaiwhakamahere whakahaere ohotata ki te auau me te nui o ngā hūnga puia me te āhua o ngā mōrearea ka puta ake. Ka āwhina hoki i te pai o ngā whakahaere ina hū mai tētahi puia.
These results contribute to the limited empirical data available for tephra fall building damage and can be used to calibrate existing fragility functions, improving our evidence base for forecasting future impacts for similar construction types globally.
This study highlights the complex nature of episodic, multi-phase, and multi-vent, explosive to dome-forming rhyolitic eruptions, depicting a scenario of great relevance for future volcanic hazard studies at active rhyolitic volcanoes worldwide.
This study investigates variations in anisotropy at Whakaari/White Island between 2018 and 2020, during quiescence, unrest, and the 2019 eruption.
This study testifies the complexity of tephra sequences associated with long-lasting, small-to-moderate eruptions, and describes the key eruption parameters that can be obtained through a detailed characterisation and identifies the main limitations related to the classification of these eruptive styles.
A. Tupper, G. Leonard, 2024 Developing the future vision for seamless multi-hazard warnings for volcanic eruptions—outcomes from a workshop at IAVCEI 2023, Rotorua Bulletin of…
Doll, P., Eaves, S. R., Kennedy, B. M., Blard, P.-H., Nichols, A. R. L., Leonard, G. S., Townsend, D. B., Cole, J. W., Conway, C.…
A revised the geology, stratigraphy, and volcanic evolution of Tūhua (Mayor Island) volcano, New Zealand.
This review aims to provide a high-level overview of the current state of volcanic vulnerability modelling and identify areas for future development.
Shahzadi, A., Wang, T., Bebbington, M. & Parry, M. (2022). Inhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov models for incompletely observed point processes. Annals of the Institute of Statistical…
Foote, A., Nemeth, K. & Handley, H. (2022). The interplay between environmental and magmatic conditions in eruption style transitions within a fissure-aligned monogenetic volcanic system…
Burgos, V., Jenkins, S.F., Bebbington, M., Newhall, C. & Taisne, B. (2022). What is the probability of unexpected eruptions from potentially active volcanoes or regions?…
Burgos, V., Jenkins, S.F., Bebbington, M., Newhall, C., Taisne, B. (2022). A new perspective on eruption data completeness: insights from the First Recorded EruptionS in…
Stewart, C., Damby, D.E., Horwell, C.J., Elias, T., Elyinska, E., Tomašek, I., Longo, B.M., Schmidt, A., Carlsen, H.K., Mason, E., Bazter, P.J., Cronin, S. &…
Bebbington, M.S. (2022). Volcanic Eruptions: Stochastic Models of Occurrence Patterns. In: Tilling, R.I. (ed) Complexity in Tsunamis, Volcanoes, and their Hazards. Encyclopedia of Complexity and…
Whitehead, M.G. & Bebbington, M.S. (2021) Method selection in short-term volcano forecasting. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 419: 107386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107386
Whitehead, M.G., Bebbington, M.S., Procter, J., Irwin, M. & Viskovic, G. (2022) An initial assessment of short-term eruption forecasting options in New Zealand. New Zealand…
Wang, T., Bebbington, M., Cronin, S. & Carman, J. (2022) Forecasting eruptions at poorly known volcanoes using analogs and multivariate renewal processes. Geophysical Research Letters…
Schaefer, L.N., Kerezturi, G., Villeneuve, M. & Kennedy, B. (2021) Determining physical and mechanical volcanic rock properties via reflectance spectroscopy. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal…
Bebbington, M. & Jenkins, S.F. (2022) Intra-eruption forecasting using analogue volcano and eruption sets. Journal of Geophysical Research, 127(6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jb024343
An overview of forecasting options and how they relate to Aotearoa New Zealand's volcanoes.
Dr Mel Whitehead presentation, 'How do volcanologists forecast eruptions?' webinar, May 2022
Voloschina M, Bebbington M, Lube G, Procter J. 2021. Probabilistic modelling of multi-phase eruptions found in geological records: an example from Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand.…
Mead S, Procter J, Bebbington M. 2020. Volcanic hazards to Taranaki Crossing from Taranaki and Fanthams Peak. Wellington (NZ): Department of Conservation.
Mead S, Procter J, Bebbington M. 2020. Lahar hazard assessment for Whakapapa ski area, Ruapehu volcano. Report prepared for Department of Conservation by Volcanic Risk…
Walsh B, Coviello V, Capra L, Procter J, Márquez-Ramirez V. 2020. Insights Into the internal dynamics of natural lahars from analysis of 3-component broadband seismic…
Analysis shows a clear distinction between heating- and decompression-induced breakdown of amphibole textures.
Analysis reveals a clear distinction between heating- and decompression-induced breakdown of amphibole textures.
Taking advantage of a 15 year time series to retrospectively process the seismic data using ambient noise and tremor-based methodologies.