Vision
Coastal adaptation planning in Aotearoa New Zealand is supported by detailed risk and vulnerability assessments and a suite of consistent and proactive guidance and tools.
Project description
Coastal areas of Aotearoa New Zealand are experiencing major impacts from rising sea levels and worsening storms which cause our coastal areas and rivers to flood. Traditionally used adaptation strategies that ‘protect’ and ‘accommodate’ are becoming increasingly ineffective, short-lived and expensive to maintain. Decision-makers in Aotearoa New Zealand urgently need new adaptive planning approaches, policies and tools that address coastal changes and allow for the uncertainties surrounding the magnitude and rate of sea-level rise.
Our research will provide decision-makers with the guidance and tools they need to proactively plan for successful coastal adaptation, resulting in positive outcomes for community wellbeing and safety, and resilient infrastructure, in the face of ever-changing risk conditions.
To achieve this, we are working with central and local government, hapū and iwi on four closely related sub-projects to:
Our goal is to provide Aotearoa New Zealand with the guidance and methodologies for proactive and flexible adaptation to support effective coastal planning.
Two novel applications from New Zealand of real options analysis that formed part of actual decision processes.
Determining who is most vulnerable to climate change impacts in coastal areas to assist decision-makers in prioritising the focus of climate adaptation efforts.
G. Cundill, B. Harvey, D. Ley, C. Singh, B. Huson, P. Aldunce, R. Biesbroek, J. Lawrence, D. Morchain, J. Nalau, N.P. Simpson, E. Totin 2024…
How can mātauranga Māori and modern approaches to adaptation protect the cultural identity and wellbeing of Māori?
What drives communities to respond to coastal inundation risk and where are their tolerance thresholds for change?
How long are different protections from relative sea-level rise (RSLR) likely to remain effective?
Summary of a symposium held in March 2023 to mark 10 years since New Zealand introduced dynamic adaptive pathways planning approaches for addressing climate change.
Under coastal housing and urban development pressure, how can we use existing legislation to better enable coastal adaptation?
Blakely, H., Quilter, P., Smith, S., Witney, M., Shand, T. & Whittaker, C. (2022). Adaptation of coastal protection infrastructure. Special Publication #5 - Coastal Adaptation,…
Stroombergen, A. & Lawrence, Judy. (2022). A novel illustration of real options analysis to address the problem of probabilities under deep uncertainty and changing climate…
Judy Lawrence, Anita Wreford and Sylvia Allan, New Zealand Planning Quarterly, Volume 18, Issue 2, May 2022.
Lawrence J, Allan S and Clarke L (2021) Inadequacy Revealed and the Transition to Adaptation as Risk Management in New Zealand. Front. Clim. 3:734726. doi:…
Adolf Stroombergen, Judy Lawrence (2021). Economic evaluation methodologies to support proactive adaptation to sea-level rise. Wellington, New Zealand: Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge…
Judy Lawrence, Sylvia Allan, Larissa Clarke (2021). Using current legislative settings for managing the transition to a dynamic adaptive planning regime in New Zealand. Wellington:…
Reducing coastal exposure and vulnerability requires a transformation in the development and delivery of climate services, and an understanding of the decision-making and policy context.
Marjolijn Haasnoot, Judy Lawrence, Alexandre K. Magnan (2021) Pathways to Coastal Retreat, 2021, Science, Vol 372, Issue 6548. doi:10.1126/science.abi6594
J. Jozaei, R. Bell, R. Blackett, S. Stephens, M. de Boer, N. Golubiewski, I. Dawe, J. Joynts, M. Hacknell, J. Boyle, J. Lawrence. New Zealand…
Stephens SA, Bell RG, Lawrence J. 2017. Applying principles of uncertainty within coastal hazard assessments to better support coastal adaptation. Journal of Marine Science and…
Schneider P, Glavovic B. 2019. Climate change adaptation in New Zealand. In: Cutter SL, editor. Oxford research encyclopedia of natural hazard science. Oxford (GB): Oxford…
Grace E, France-Hudson B, Kilvington M. 2019. Reducing risk through the management of existing uses: Tensions under the RMA. Lower Hutt (NZ): GNS Science. 10…
Grace E, France-Hudson B, Kilvington M. 2018. Managing existing uses in areas at high risk from natural hazards: an issues paper. Lower Hutt (NZ): GNS…
Lawrence J, Blackett P, Cradock-Henry NA. 2020. Cascading climate change impacts and implications. Climate Risk Management. 29:100234. doi:10.1016/j.crm.2020.100234.
Cooper JAG, Masselink G, Coco G, Short AD, Castelle B, Rogers K, Anthony E, Green AN, Kelley JT, Pilkey OH, et al. 2020. Sandy beaches…
Lawrence J, Bell R, Blackett P, Ryan E, Robichaux L. 2019. A practice brief: adaptation transition at the coast Planning Quarterly. 214.
Kench PS, Ryan EJ, Owen S, Bell R, Lawrence J, Glavovic B, Blackett P, Becker J, Schneider P, Allis M, et al. 2018. Co-creating resilience…
Kilvington M, Saunders W. 2017. Science to practice: understanding how nature hazard and climate science can be incorporated into land use plans. Planning Quarterly. 205:8-12.
Lawrence J, Bell R, Blackett P, Stephens S, Allan S. 2018. National guidance for adapting to coastal hazards and sea-level rise: Anticipating change, when and…
Lawrence J, Bell R, Stroombergen A. 2019. A hybrid process to address uncertainty and changing climate risk in coastal areas using dynamic adaptive pathways planning,…
Robichaux L, Owen S, Kench P. 2018. Fuzzy cognitive mapping: proposed assessment framework for coastal risk management project processes. In. Lynett P, editor. 36th International…
Can these networks continue to be adapted/protected over time to retain Levels of Service, or will retreat eventually be the only viable adaptation option?
Allis MJ, Bell RG. 2019. Retreat is not an option: managing effects of sea-level rise on a critical infrastructure corridor in Wellington, New Zealand. In:…
Schneider P, Lawrence J, Glavovic B, Ryan E, Blackett P. 2020. A rising tide of adaptation action: Comparing two coastal regions of Aotearoa-New Zealand. Climate…
Owen S, Lawrence J, Ryan E, Kench P, Bell R, Rennie H, Blackett P, Schneider P. 2018. Coastal management: anticipating staged managed retreat. Planning Quarterly.…
Lawrence J, Boston J, Bell R, Olufson S, Kool R, Hardcastle M, Stroombergen A. 2020. Implementing pre-emptive managed retreat: constraints and novel insights. Current Climate…
Lawrence J, Saunders W. 2017. The planning nexus between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. In: Kelman I, Mercer J, Gaillard J, editors. The…
A thematic analysis of key themes and lessons.
Identifying opportunities to leverage innovative international practice to enhance Aotearoa’s approach to analysing social vulnerability in coastal locations.
How practice under the existing planning framework has exposed people and assets to greater risk, and how current law and practice can support more effective climate risk management.
Can such networks continue to be adapted/protected over time or is eventual retreat the only viable adaptation option?