Very High Resolution Future Case Studies

The latest computer modelling techniques allow us to improve our understanding of the likelihood and impacts of the hazards caused by high impact weather. We aim to give planners and decision makers detailed estimates of how future extreme weather events are likely to affect Aotearoa New Zealand.

To achieve this, we are developing new models and tools to take advantage of the advanced detail provided by very high resolution weather computer models. We are also studying past events such as recent ex-tropical cyclones and their impacts on communities and assets.

Our models will describe the weather intensities of three extreme weather scenarios:

• a severe ex-tropical cyclone hitting the city of Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, rural Northland, and the coastal Hauraki plains region.
• a large-scale wildfire at the urban edge of Wānaka, exacerbated by pre-existing drought.
• a major winter storm in the South Island.

We are also collaborating with the Deep South Challenge to understand how the frequency and severity of such events are likely to change under future climate change.

Our goal is for our improved forecasts of the likelihood and impacts of extreme weather events to help emergency management planners and other decision-makers identify the most effective ways to mitigate future losses caused by high impact weather.