Canterbury AF8 Risk Profiles: Alpine Fault Magnitude (AF8) science Summary for Canterbury

Abstract

This report provides a summary of previous and ongoing scientific research projects related to an Alpine Fault Mw 8.0 (AF8) earthquake event in the Canterbury region. Project AF8 (which stands for “Alpine Fault Magnitude 8) is a three-year programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to address an associated knowledge gap. It is a partnership of all the Civil Defence and Emergency Management (CDEM) Groups in the South Island, funded by the Government through the National Emergency Management Agency’s (NEMA), formerly the Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management’s (MCDEM), Resilience Fund. It involves scientists from six universities and Crown Research Institutes, emergency services, lifelines, iwi, health authorities and many other partner agencies. The project is managed by Emergency Management Southland.

As part of the AF8 programme, the regional CDEM groups are required to produce a regional AF8 response and recovery plan. To aid in this planning, Canterbury Civil Defence and Emergency Management Group have approached the AF8 science team and requested a compilation which summarises and curates relevant and available AF8 research, specifically for the Canterbury region.

Therefore, this report is a compendium of AF8 hazard, impact and risk science studies, with a specific focus on the Canterbury region. It presents a curated summary of relevant research projects, which are typically either international-peer reviewed journal articles or internally peer-reviewed scientific reports. It does not include any new science, except where explicitly stated. Inclusion criteria of studies was determined by relevance and availability.