The spatial and temporal ‘cost’ of volcanic eruptions: assessing the economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand.

Abstract

In the past, volcanic risk assessment concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of the physical processes of eruptions and their impact on life and property. However, a socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact should extend beyond direct infrastructure and property loss and also consider businesses. There are at least 53 volcanoes underlying Aotearoa New Zealand’s largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35% of the nation’s GDP. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7,270 unique locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field. We model a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an ‘average’ eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified with and without business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with what we know about the probability of such events occurring to produce spatial economic activity ‘at risk’ maps. Our approach demonstrates how business losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment.