Simulation of post-volcanic eruption time variant land use and economic impacts in the Auckland region of New Zealand.

Abstract

We do not currently have the capability to simulate the impacts of volcanic eruptions on affected locations across time. We bring together a land use change model and an economic model that can simulate post-hazard event economies. We apply this to the impacts that occur over a 4-year period following a hypothetical eruption for the Auckland region of New Zealand. The eruption scenario includes pyroclastic surges and lava flows that directly impact an urban area of 9600 ha. The results illustrate the cascading impacts on infrastructure networks and disruption to businesses and staff and connections within the economy. It also shows significant land use changes outside of the areas directly impacted by physical volcanic hazards. The results demonstrate that we can simulate how the economy could recover after an eruption has occurred. They also show an integrated land use and economic model could be useful in simulating and evaluating alternative redevelopment strategies for urban areas following volcanic eruptions.