Simulation Methodology: Transfer of cascading hazard outputs to direct impact assessments

Abstract

A significant part of multi-hazard impact assessment is the translation from hazard output to direct impact. As part of the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges Phase 2 – Multi-Hazard Risk Model, this work goes one step further to translate hazard outputs into potentially indirect, downstream economic impacts. This short report provides the simulation methodology for direct physical and economic impact assessment aligned to the Multihazard Case Study, which models multiple hazards in the Rangitāiki-Tarawera river system in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. The bulk of this report describes the processes behind the selection of locations of interest at which hazard attribute information is required. Locations of interest include businesses deemed economically important to the region, productive land for dairy, forestry, or horticulture, and locations along road and power networks. The remainder of the report details the specifics around hazard attribute transfer. There are six hazards modelled across this Case Study: lava, tephra, lahars/debris flows, landslides/debris avalanches, floods, and earthquakes, each of which comes with a different set of required hazard attributes at the locations of interest.