Risk of isolation increases the expected burden from sea-level rise

Abstract

Sea-level rise adaptation planning typically uses predicted property inundation to estimate the number of people that will be displaced. However, this may be an underestimate as it does not take into account any indirect or follow-on impacts of sea-level rise. We propose consideration of the risk that people will be cut off from essential services alongside property inundation modelling and compare the number of people at risk from inundation to the number of people at risk from isolation.

In the United States, inundated roadways during mean higher high water tides in coastal areas shows that the increase in people at risk is between 30% and 90%, and is several times higher in some states. Furthermore, the risk of isolation may occur decades sooner than the risk of inundation, providing critical information for evaluating adaptation options and giving priority to support for at-risk communities.