Past experience of drought, drought risk perception, and climate mitigation and adaptation decisions by farmers in New Zealand

Abstract

We analyze the perception of farmers in New Zealand with regards to future drought risk as shaped by climatic change and the implications of these perceptions for climate mitigation and adaptation actions that these farmers choose to pursue. The policy options examined include reducing greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening climate resilience, and using water resources more efficiently. Almost all farmers in New Zealand expect an increase in drought frequency and intensity by 2050. We also find that age, gender, and education are correlated with future drought risk perceptions by farmers. Female farmers and farmers with higher education are more concerned about future droughts. Importantly, drought perception of farmers is associated with their climate-related mitigation and adaptation preferences. If farmers perceive an increase in drought risk by 2050, they will focus more on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing the climate resilience of their farms, and trying to improve their use of water resources. Understanding how drought risk perceptions are shaped, and specifically their role in determining mitigation and adaptation decisions, may shed some useful light that can improve policy responses to the risks of droughts and climate change more broadly.