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Near-real-time modeling of landslide impacts to inform rapid response: An example from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake

Robinson TR, Rosser NJ, Davies TRH, Wilson TM, Orchiston C. 2018. Near‐real‐time modeling of landslide impacts to inform rapid response: an example from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 108(3B):1665-1682. doi:10.1785/0120170234.

Abstract

After an earthquake it is important for emergency services to understand where landslides occur as quickly as possible. After the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand, we made a near real time scientific model that could identify where roads and rivers had been blocked. This model combined observations of landslide hazards from around the world with a model based on how landslides could interact with the local topography and geology. We did this manually and the first iteration was completed within 24 hours of the earthquake. The second iteration was based on updated shaking reports and was completed less than 72 hours after the earthquake. Both models predicted that the landsliding would be significant and cut the roads and rail leading to Kaikōura. These results were used by responders at the time to plan aerial reconnaissance flight paths and to identify the risk that landslide dams could cause further damage. After the event we checked the model against what occurred. Although it captured a large percentage of landslides and landslide impacts the model also predicted worse results than the reality. However, the model is a promising initial attempt at near‐real‐time landslide modelling. Efforts to automate the approach would be useful in future earthquakes.

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