Modelling evacuation decisions under a threat of volcanic eruption in Auckland

Abstract

Understanding evacuation decisions of individuals is imperative to establish policies and procedures during emergencies and for long-term societal reconstruction. Five socio-psychological factors contributing to individuals’ evacuation intention under natural hazard conditions are identified from a literature review. These include attitude towards advice given by the authorities, risk perception, social norm, perceived behavioural control and preparedness intention. A conceptual framework is proposed based on the socio-psychological approach to model and analyse the evacuation intention. An online behavioural expectations questionnaire survey is conducted in Auckland, New Zealand, to investigate the evacuation decision-making behaviour of Aucklanders under a hypothetical volcanic eruption scenario. The proposed framework is implemented using the structural equation modelling approach. The results support the proposed model and provide some insights into interrelationships between the predictive factors. Psychological factors, including attitude towards advice given by the authorities, preparedness intention and risk perception, have a significant positive impact on individuals’ evacuation intentions.