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Policy Briefing

Impact-based forecasts and warnings

Resilience Challenge (2024) Policy Brief: Impact-based forecasts and warnings. Resilience to Nature's Challenges National Science Challenge, May 2024.


There is a growing need in Aotearoa New Zealand to improve communications relating to various hazards that pose threats to people, property, and infrastructure. Impact-based forecasts and warnings (IBFWs) offer a way to design and communicate warnings that are more meaningful and relevant to people.

The goal of Impact-Based Forecasts and Warnings (IBFWs) is to communicate what the hazard may DO, and not just what the hazard may BE. Designing and developing an IBFW system can be daunting, so we have developed this policy brief sheet to introduce key definitions and concepts for IBFWs and provide a starting point for anyone who wants to setup an IBFW system in Aotearoa. IBFW systems should be co-developed by multiple agencies involved in hazard monitoring and forecasting, disaster risk reduction, and emergency response and preparedness.

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