From eruption scenarios to probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis: An example of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Abstract

Probabilistic and scenario-based volcanic hazard assessments have opposing strengths and weaknesses in analysing risk. Probabilistic assessments allow uncertainty to be quantified and are less influenced by feelings. Scenario-based assessment are easier to communicate and have a story across time. In this paper we propose a way to bridge the two methods. We use a case study of the Auckland Volcanic Field in Aotearoa New Zealand to combine multiple eruption scenarios with different hazards and types of eruptions at different times. We use existing and new models to provide probabilities that are conditional on local environmental conditions. This lets us obtain the relative likelihood of each scenario at every location. We also demonstrate that it may be possible to improve emergency management training by taking advantage of this new knowledge.