Engaging with End-users Towards an Earthquake Early Warning System for New Zealand.

Abstract

Earthquake early warning systems (EQEWS) should be part of an Earthquake Resilience toolkit as they can potentially save injuries and lives. The Sendai Framework of disaster risk reduction 2015- 2030 has 7 global targets including “Substantially increase the availability of and access to multihazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030”. However New Zealand does not currently operate a national EQEWS. What strategy needs to be adopted to get there?

EQEWS relies on 3 pillars: earthquake science, sensor and communication technologies, and endusers. Scientists have made tremendous progress in earthquake science and related EQEWS algorithms. Sensor technology and communication engineering constantly evolve allowing to "save precious seconds". Finally, there is an appetite for EQEWS in New Zealand.

Funded by the Resilience Challenge, we are currently developing a simulation toolbox to engage with national end-users (EQC and NEMA for example) by developing:

• realistic input parameters (current state of the National network of instrumentation, investment required to upgrade/maintain for desired warning levels and uncertainties),

• realistic simulation models (EQEW algorithms tested on realistic earthquake catalogs)

• statistical outputs that can be converted into a dollar value.

Benefits such as life safety can be quantified by the economic cost by mapping the cost to society from minor-major injuries. The benefit of a EQEWS on providing damage avoidance strategies for structures and infrastructure can also be directly valued economically. Any proposed strategy to support EQEWS implementation needs to take into account already existing community resilience. Any new response systems need to work in harmony or inform current practices rather than being disruptive and confusing for the public.