Economic Systems Modelling of Infrastructure Interdependencies for an Alpine Fault Earthquake in New Zealand

Abstract

Modern societies are increasingly dependent on interconnected infrastructure networks. The vulnerability of these networks to complex failures is also increasing. Emerging societal and environmental pressures cause multi-faceted risks to infrastructure networks. Complex failures then happen when interdependencies cause even more failures to occur, a little like dominoes falling. Navigating through these risks requires resilience-based initiatives with compelling economic cases. We use the ‘Measuring the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Tool’ to assess the economic disruption associated with a potential Alpine Fault earthquake in the South Island of Aotearoa New Zealand. This type of quake has an estimated 30% probability of happening in the next 50 years. Our analysis focuses mainly on infrastructure-related economic disruption. We suggest the best option is a dynamic approach that assesses and re-assesses consequences across space, through time, and for multiple stakeholders. Our integrated modelling approach involves feedback to encourage systems thinking, enrich modelling, and to reduce risks of double counting or omission. One year after the modelled earthquake, the loss in GDP is shown to range between NZ$156–586 million (∼US$135–508 million). Our research represents a crucial first step to developing better economic value cases for resilience-related infrastructure investment.