Assessing Social Vulnerability to Climate Change at the Coast

Abstract

Estimates suggest that 65% of Aotearoa New Zealand’s population live within 5km of the coast (Ministry for the Environment, 2019). Sea-level rise and other coastal hazards (such as erosion, inundation, and storms) are projected to magnify and become more frequent and/or severe around Aotearoa with climate change (Lawrence et al., 2018; Ministry for the Environment, 2020). In order to pursue appropriate, robust, and equitable climate adaptation to coastal hazards in Aotearoa it is essential to develop clear understandings of the regions, communities, and social groups that are most vulnerable to adverse effects.

This report examines social vulnerability indicators – a methodology widely used to assess who in society is most vulnerable to climate change. Applied in the context of climate change, social vulnerability generally means the propensity of a social group or individual(s) to be harmed by climate change on account of their relative positioning within social, cultural, economic and political systems, with greater harm generally associated to groups experiencing one or more forms of marginalisation (Adger, 2006; Barnett, 2020; Howitt et al., 2012). Social vulnerability indicators comprise a set of qualities, characteristics, or markers that are known to contribute to greater social vulnerability to climate change. They are applied to identify social vulnerability ‘hotspots’ or populations of concern (groups of people, communities, neighbourhoods, regions, and even countries) and assist decision-makers in prioritising the focus of climate adaptation efforts, including in coastal locations (Atyia Martin, 2015; Birkmann et al., 2022; B. E. Flanagan et al., 2018).