A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand Application

Abstract

Decision makers face challenges in coastal areas about how to address the effects of sea-level rise. Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning and Real Options Analysis can support decision makers to address uncertainties in coastal areas. This paper sets out what we learned when developing a 100-year coastal adaptation strategy in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand. Lessons include the value of community and decision-makers working together. This approach is particularly helpful in situations where councils and communities at risk disagree about history. This collaboration allows an increase in understanding about the changing risk over time, and the need to take early action. We discovered it is important to: a) use several plausible scenarios for stress-testing options; b) avoid the perception that hard protection will last; c) decide which criteria are appropriate for communities to assess; and d) make many pathways visible for future decision makers. We found that doing this requires ongoing political leadership and governance. Monitoring will be needed to manage the adaptive process for governments and their constituent communities over long timeframes.