Over our ten-year research journey, we’ve developed a significant body of knowledge on natural hazard resilience, and developed guidance, recommendations and tools that have helped decision-makers at all levels – from government agencies to communities – make good choices to reduce their risks and boost their resilience.
Phase 1
During Phase 1 of our research, the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake was a significant event that prompted research into social and economic recovery following significant disruption in an isolated, rural setting, as well as providing an opportunity to study the impacts of a major earthquake on critical infrastructure networks, and the interdependencies between networks. This led to the development of new knowledge on ways to improve critical infrastructure performance.
Our Rural programme established a long-standing relationship with the Alpine Fault earthquake preparedness and response planning programme AF8, providing science support which enabled developments in the underpinning science, and an outreach programme to share new knowledge with South Island communities.
Our Living at the Edge team contributed to the rollout of a major coastal adaptation planning process in Hawke’s Bay, which trialled ‘Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning’ approaches. The team were able to identify lessons and develop new knowledge about adaptive planning in the Aotearoa New Zealand context.
Other highlights from Phase 1 include:
- Underpinning academic work on mātauranga Māori and natural hazards resilience
- Research into wildfire risk at the urban-rural fringe including studies of the Port Hills fire
- Research investigating the resilience of marginalised urban communities such as refugees and new migrants
- Research on the role of Iwi and Hapū Management Plans in reducing natural hazard and climate change risk to Māori communities
- Work with sheep and beef farmers and the wine industry in Marlborough and North Canterbury to increase resilience following drought and the 2016 earthquake.
Phase 2
In Phase 2 of the Challenge, researchers at GNS Science made significant progress embedding impact-based forecasts and warnings in New Zealand practice. These types of warnings are triggered by potential impacts (such as traffic disruptions or power cuts), rather than the magnitude of a hazard, such as wind speed or rainfall intensity. They make warnings more meaningful, and enable people to take actions to plan and prepare.
Pioneering work from the Earthquakes & Tsunami programme has led to the development of New Zealand’s first earthquake cycle simulator. By using physics-based computer models, the team have been able to generate a ‘catalogue’ of hundreds of thousands of years’ worth of earthquakes. The work enables us to better understand New Zealand’s full earthquake cycle, how earthquakes cluster in time, and how earthquakes on deep faults can trigger earthquakes on shallower faults. It means we can get a clearer picture of what future large, damaging quakes might look like.
Our Volcanoes programme has developed new models which provide an underpinning basis for better impact forecasting across the different types of volcanic hazards typical of our cone volcanoes in Taranaki and the Central Plateau. The team have also developed strong relationships with partners and stakeholders surrounding our cone volcanoes, including iwi and hapū. For example, volcano scientists and Ngāti Rangi kaitiaki have worked to bring traditional observational techniques together with volcanic science to deepen their shared knowledge of Mt Ruapehu.
Our kaupapa Māori researchers have partnered with iwi and hapū in Tamaki Makaurau, Taranaki, Te Urewera, the Central Plateau, eastern Bay of Plenty, Te Whanganui-a-Tara / Wairarapa, and the top of the South Island to address Māori resilience needs.
The last five years have been a busy time for policy and legislative change to address climate adaptation, particularly at the coast. In various processes we have contributed new knowledge on dynamic adaptive planning, community-led retreat, and Te Ao Māori perspectives and knowledges collated through wānanga with Māori planners, researchers and iwi kaitiaki.
Our Weather & Wildfire team contributed to the development of a rainfall-induced landslides tool which was deployed by the GNS Science landslides team during the 2023 North Island extreme weather events. The tool forecasts where landslides are most likely to have occurred, so emergency managers can make good, evidence-based decisions.
A team from the University of Auckland has completed the first comprehensive assessment of coastal change (patterns of erosion and accretion) since the 1970s. This concerted effort took five years and involved more than 40 researchers, and provides a nationally consistent baseline against which future coastal change can be assessed. It also identifies erosion hotspots where decision-making is most urgent.
In May 2024, the RNC community including collaborators and research users from central and local government, hapū and iwi, community groups and the private sector came together at Te Papa for a final symposium, Te Tai Whanake. It was a worthy celebration of ten years of research effort, and the collaborative ways of working that have been so successful in developing fit-for-purpose resilience knowledge and tools.