Webinar: Next generation earthquake and tsunami hazard and response


This webinar has now passed. You can find the recording here.

New Zealand’s full seismic cycle is measured in thousands of years, yet available modern observations only cover the last few decades. The limited time-window of modern data and the incompleteness of geological information mean we can’t capture the entire range of possible natural earthquakes, especially the largest, most devastating events.

As part of the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges (RNC2) Earthquake-Tsunami programme, researchers have used earthquake cycle simulators to overcome many of the challenges of our limited modern observations by creating a million year catalogue of synthetic earthquakes.

In this webinar, Dr Bill Fry (GNS Science) and Prof Andy Nicol (University of Canterbury) will introduce the current version of New Zealand’s first model of the full seismic cycle. The new catalogue has many applications, including great promise in underpinning next generation earthquake and tsunami hazard models.

In the closely aligned Rapid Characterisation of Earthquakes and Tsunamis programme (R-CET), we are using the synthetic catalogue to better understand what will happen after large earthquakes, and optimise our tools to provide more effective early warning and post-event forecasting of impacts. 

Bill and Andy will present two new applications:

  • Using the model to inform estimates of changes to groundwater flow due to ground deformation caused by large subduction earthquakes
  • Using the model to test the ability of New Zealand’s DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) buoy array to provide tsunami early warning for New Zealand’s biggest local earthquakes.  

Webinar Speakers 

Dr Bill Fry  
GNS Science

Bill co-leads the Resilience Challenge Earthquake-Tsunami programme, and is a seismologist at Te Pū Ao GNS Science. His expertise spans earthquake and tsunami hazard as well as the physical processes that create these perils. Bill is a member of the New Zealand Tsunami Monitoring and Detection steering group and leads the MBIE Endeavour Rapid Characterisation of Earthquakes and Tsunamis research programme. He has briefed cabinet-level central government during numerous earthquake and tsunami event responses. 


Professor Andy Nicol
University of Canterbury

Andy co-leads the Resilience Challenge Earthquake-Tsunami programme, and Professor of Structural Geology at the University of Canterbury. He studies earthquakes in New Zealand and overseas to understand better earthquake processes and hazards, and his research interests include the 2016 Kaikōura and 2010 Darfield earthquakes.

This free webinar will be useful to those involved in earthquake and tsunami resilience in central and local government, emergency management, as well as researchers and students. There will be an opportunity to ask questions of the research team. 

A recording of the webinar will be made available afterwards if you are unable to attend live. 

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